The cost of economic data keywords next week, European officials favor the good offices of

Stagnation in the European debt settlement process, Europe and the United States a number of important economic data has become the biggest factor affecting the foreign exchange  Forex new site fluctuations. From published data as a whole showed a weak America, Europe and strong pattern, which also make intraday euro was weakening. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday (August 16) support the remarks of the European Central Bank to defend the euro area is still the euro rebounded.
Merkel next week, returning from vacation, will solve the problem of European debt talks with the leaders of the main euro area countries, in addition to the Federal Reserve will also be published next Wednesday (August 22) minutes of meetings, the results worth investors closely attention.
Currency inventory this week: economic data into the keywordsThe cost of economic data keywords next week, European officials favor the good offices of
The euro area: nordfx forex broker the economy is still shrinking, the outlook is bleakIn Europe, this week, France and Germany in the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) quarter rate was slightly better than expected, and subsequently released in the eurozone in the second quarter preliminary GDP quarter rate in line with expectations, but the second quarter of the euro area economy still fall into atrophy, marked in the region or again face the threat of a technical recession.
The data show that euro-zone GDP data of the second quarter of quarter rate of decline of 0.2 percent annualized decline of 0.4 percent, the result is in line with market expectations, but the previous quarter performance has deteriorated. Contraction in the economy or the euro zone leaders more difficult to end the financial crisis. The crisis has forced some euro area member states needs financial assistance, and led to doubt whether the euro area can exist in its current form. Rising unemployment, business and consumer confidence fell or will lead to the deterioration of many countries, public finances, as well as delay the completion of the debt reduction target, and pushed up to investor fears.
Addition, announced on Tuesday (August 14), Germany August ZEW economic sentiment index is the fourth consecutive monthly decline, recorded a -25.5, and far below the -19.6 expected, since the 2012 opening year, recorded a minimum level; but the euro-zone industrial output better than expected, data show that the Eurozone June Industrial Production fell 0.6 percent annual decline of 2.1%, respectively, slightly better than expectations of 0.7 percent and 2.2 percent decline.
BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) economist Kenneth Wattret said: "Most imply that the economic momentum indicators show that third-quarter euro-zone GDP will shrink again I expect a large number of the announcement in September, the investment will be very weak, business confidence in the abnormally low level. "
Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Standard Chartered), said: "the core of the euro area member states can not be completely avoided the negative impact from the periphery countries, which is currently on the market to digest the facts."
United States: data mixed, QE3 expected loomingAnnounced this week that many key U.S. macroeconomic data, the results of the overall mixed, which is also too QE3 expected looming. In this week's data, retail sales, industrial production and housing data all the more gratifying, but the CPI lower than expected and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and poor still feel QE3 still lingers.
 The data released Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC), July retail sales in the United States the first time in four months to achieve growth and performance far exceeded expectations. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. July retail sales reached 403.93 billion U.S. dollars, the monthly rate increased by 0.8%, far exceeding the rise in the expected level of 0.3 percent. June Retail Sales amendment to drop 0.7 percent after falling 0.4 percent, before the amendment.
In addition, the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday (August 15) published data show that U.S. industrial output growth in July to further accelerate the continued growth in manufacturing activity for the depressed economic situation has brought a recovery in confidence. Rate of industrial output in July rose by 0.6 percent, higher than the increase of 0.5% expected growth in June from 0.4% correction to 0.1%. The United States Association of Home Builders (NAHB) on Wednesday released a report, home builders confidence in the country in August rose to the highest level in more than five years, and for the fourth consecutive rise, showing that the U.S. was tired of the real estate market is being improved.
However, the U.S. data did not all positive. Released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) data show that the consumer price index (CPI) monthly rate of accidents in the U.S. rose after the flat for the fourth consecutive month no recorded growth, and the annual rate of increase in nearly two years a new low, indicating U.S. inflation pressures are still controlled.
In addition, data show that on Thursday the United States in early July jobless claims to 366,000, close to the expected 365,000; U.S. Philadelphia Fed released a report August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index of -7.1, worse than expected level of -5.0 for four consecutive months in the minus side, which indicates that the area of ​​manufacturing activity in August to continue in the shrinking state.
The president of Goldman Sachs Group (Goldman Sachs), Jan Hatzius said on Wednesday that the recent U.S. economic data uplink is especially strong in July retail sales data means that the Fed will not launch QE3.
Hatzius said that the continued weakness in the economy will promote the launch of QE3 But so far, and no signs of weakness. But he also pointed out that only the present judgment, the Fed will eventually launch QE3, there are still some weak economic data.
Britain and Japan meeting minutes: still waiting to see, does not exclude the future launch of easing mayIn addition to the many economic data this week, the United Kingdom and the Bank of Japan has announced a monetary policy meeting, the same market focus.
Minutes of the August 1-2 meeting released Wednesday by the Bank of England, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in full through the results of the vote to maintain the interest rate and scale of quantitative easing (QE) unchanged. However, MPC members are not easy to make this choice, some members who voted for the maintenance of stability QE unchanged is a painful choice, some members are still difficult to resist the temptation of expanding QE, saying that there is plenty of reason to support the re-expansion of QE .
Minutes published long ago, the Bean, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England MPC members Fisher, position, suggesting that optimistic about the QE effect. Fisher said that the Bank of England asset purchases (QE measures) is more powerful than the interest rate cut to stimulate the British economy. Bean, Bank of England Deputy Governor said that the July inflation rate unexpectedly rose, is unlikely to change the Bank of England will continue to slow the expected price increases. He also said that quantitative easing (QE) initiatives in the UK economy which has some effect on demand.
Bank of England just announced the expansion of the scale of the QE of £ 50 billion in July, after a lapse of only a month, the MPC some of the members to maintain the QE scale like this painfully difficult choices in August, and the two members expressed their optimistic about the QE effect - - it also reflects the Bank of England QE tendency to be revived at any time and dominant.
TD Securities TD Securities senior strategist Jacqui Douglas said on Wednesday that the Bank of England interest rate decision was announced on July 50 billion pounds QE scale, more than four times to discuss the results before the final decision. However, because the British second-quarter GDP announced earlier quarter rate is particularly weak, which will make the Bank of England there is a launch more stimulus measures the sense of urgency.
Douglas said that Britain's subsequent economic data continue to be disappointing, expected the possibility of stimulus measures launched before the Bank of England's November Inflation Report. However, TD Securities believes that although the meeting minutes show that the introduction of more quantitative easing measures should be made sooner rather than later, but the reaction on the current market, the discussion on bank interest rates than the discussion of QE.
Minutes of the meeting released on Tuesday by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) showed that minority members said the central bank should not exclude any option, and is ready to take action to lead to material risk in the European debt problems. The meeting minutes show that one member said the loss against the yen and stocks fell and the risk to remain vigilant of the Japanese economy.
Bank of Japan said in the minutes of the meeting, the banking sector's liquidity position remains adequate, including long-term interest rates, including money market interest rates have held steady in the low; forward market to provide adequate funding, and its best efforts to maintain market stability. In order to smooth implementation of the asset acquisition operations, the central bank is implementing a wide range of work. In addition, Japan's exports to accelerate the trend, some overseas economies, the economic slowdown has ended. Bank of Japan also said the global financial markets continued tension, mainly a reflection of concerns about debt problems in Europe.
Bank of Japan ended July 12 two-day monetary policy meeting to maintain 0-0.1% of the ultra-low interest rates unchanged, as expected; but make a technical adjustment to the asset purchase and loan programs, said great efforts to ease monetary policy Make sure that the Japanese financial system stability.
Morgan Stanley, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities (Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities), Daisaku Ueno, senior foreign exchange and fixed income strategist, said that the easing of the Bank of Japan determined to make the yen under pressure, to a certain extent, but obviously has little effect.
Ahead next weekWeek to focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on August 24, August 20, the euro zone manufacturing PMI, Fed meeting records. Despite the recent U.S. data improve, but the factors that affect the future growth of the majority of the negative, so the Fed will consider further relaxation of policies Beijing next Thursday (August 23) 2:00 the upcoming Fed meeting may provide some early clues .
In addition, Merkel returned from vacation next week will solve the problem of European debt talks with the leaders of the main euro area countries. Merkel will meet with Greek Prime Minister Samaras (Antonis Samaras) and French President François Hollande, (Francois Hollande) on August 22 and August 23 respectively. August 29, Merkel will also meet with Italian Prime Minister Monti Mario Monti. September 6, Merkel will go to Madrid to meet with Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy (Mariano Rajoy).
European officials busy mediation, prefer to give in September to pave the way forGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel), Thursday (August 16) reiterated their commitment to defending the euro, and supports the EBRD to take measures to reduce the high cost of borrowing countries of Spain and Italy, in collaboration with the European Central Bank (ECB). This degree make massive rebound in the euro on Thursday.
Merkel said at a joint news conference with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Stephen Harper), Draghi said exactly two years ago the Greek crisis since the outbreak of the German government repeated view that is committed to take all possible measures to defend the euro.
Merkel went to the Canadian capital of Ottawa during the visit to other European leaders sent out information next week to hold a series of high-level meeting. Merkel's visit with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper to discuss the crisis in Europe, the European Union - Canada Free Trade Agreement and the Syrian situation.
A joint press conference in the Canadian Parliament Building and Harper, Merkel said: "I once again made it clear that we need a long-term and sustainable solutions."
Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange, said, "It seems that Angela Merkel to support the the Draghi commitment from this point of view, Germany seems the ECB to buy government bonds of Spain and Italy the idea of ​​resistance decreases.
"Esiner pointed out that" At least the message of the euro have been carried out on short-covering rally to increase power. Personally, I would not read too much into these messages, I have to wait until the European Central Bank to the real action. "
For the euro area, for now, next week, still more critical. Merkel, returning from vacation next week talks to resolve debt problems in Europe will be the leaders of the main euro area countries. Merkel will meet with Greek Prime Minister Samaras (Antonis Samaras) and French President François Hollande, (Francois Hollande) on August 22 and August 23 respectively. August 29, Merkel will also meet with Italian Prime Minister Monti Mario Monti. September 6, Merkel will go to Madrid to meet with Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy (Mariano Rajoy).
Fed minutes came out the the QE3 prospect of geometry?The next Wednesday the Fed will announce the July meeting minutes. Has been compared to the end of this month, Jackson Hall, Wyoming, Jackson Hole, central banks would be more close to the market will continue to try to find the QE3 expected evidence. However, taking into account the recent economic data released in the United States are better, the Fed minutes on QE3 may be few and far between, the market may then be somewhat lower.
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) research group, recently said that a week of economic data generally confirms the U.S. economy early in the third quarter of a smooth return to the point of view. While Jackson Hole Central Bank Fed watchers, is a crucial event, but unlike 2010, the agency do not think Bernanke (Ben Bernanke) will provide more policy clues, replaced by The weekly initial jobless claims trend and August payrolls report - This is the key to decide the future policy orientation.
In view of the previous Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, none mentioned the implementation of the QE3, currently on the market widely expected the Fed will be launched on the FOMC meeting held on September 12-13, QE3. Previous FOMC meeting, the Fed said the U.S. economic recovery momentum, the Fed will take additional action. Federal Reserve really is prepared to take what measures it will really be as the market expected at the September FOMC meeting on the basis of QE3, before the Fed's September meeting, all is not yet known.
Scotia Capital in Toronto, chief forex strategist Camilla Sutton, said that against most currencies, the major risk event began on August 31, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be held in Jackson Hall, Wyoming, at the annual meeting speech.
Sutton said: "Although the U.S. data to improve, but most of the factors that affect the future growth is negative, accordingly, we still think the Fed will consider further relaxing the policy will be announced next week's Fed policy meeting may provide some early clues."